Influence of leaders’ personalities on foreign policy decision making: the case of Kenya – international criminal court relations between 2013 and 2017

Abstract

This study is on foreign policy decision making which has consistently been viewed through state – centric lens; with state interests advanced as the key influence on foreign policy decision making. This argument has held true for state relations with international legal regimes. However, nascent studies have depicted that leaders involved in decision making are pivotal in influencing the foreign policies of their states, hence bringing their personality into focus. Despite these scholarly revelations, Kenyan relation with The International Criminal Court (ICC) continues to be viewed from a state - centric perspective, with sovereignty struggles, erosion of immunity of Kenyan leaders, and the potential of the ICC to upset peace processes in Kenya, advanced as the main reason for the antagonistic Kenyan foreign policy towards the ICC. What has been obscured from this debate is how the personalities of Kenyan leaders’have influenced Kenya’s antagonistic foreign policy towards the ICC. This study delved into the discussions on how and why leaders’ personalities influence states’ foreign policy decision making, using the case of Kenyan relations with the ICC. The study explored how three personality traits of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, influenced Kenya’s antagonistic foreign policy towards the ICC between 2013 and 2017. The study was guided by Leadership Trait Analysis approach advanced by Harmann (1980), and set out four specific objectives; to explore how nationalism of the two Kenyan leaders’ influenced Kenya’s antagonistic foreign policy towards ICC; to explore how Kenyan leaders’ belief in ability to control events influenced Kenya’s antagonistic foreign policy towards ICC; to explore how Kenyan leaders’ need for power influenced Kenya’s antagonistic foreign policy towards ICC, and to explore how and why the interplay of Kenyan leaders’ nationalism, belief in ability to control events and need for power influenced Kenya’s antagonistic foreign relations towards the ICC. The study is premised on multiple case research design, since it treats the two leaders as different cases, and utilizes quantitative content analysis of speeches and interviews of the two leaders, specifically with regard to the ICC. The data was sourced from select local and international news media houses, archived on their websites. The research undertook purposive sampling, targeting words spoken by each leader. The words formed the content which was analyzed using Profiler Plus software developed by Levine & Young (2014) using a coding procedure developed by Harman (2005). The result of the analysis was measured against a norming group of leaders developed by Hermann (2005) to determine if the leaders are high or low in the selected personality trait, and draw deduction on motive for the antagonistic Kenya – ICC relations between 2013 and 2017. Content analysis results revealed that the leaders were low in all the three traits explored. This explained how and why: the leaders built a team spirit among their group and followers with clarity of objective against the ICC, allowed the African Union and other African leaders to take responsibility for pursuing foreign policy actions against the ICC on behalf of Kenya, preferred the use of summits and conferences in dealing with local opposition to their antagonistic foreign policy towards the ICC, had no clear cut foreign policy towards the ICC, and were described as having shifty foreign policy goals on the ICC question. The study asserted that Kenyan leaders’ personalities influenced the country’s foreign policy towards the ICC. This called for a paradigm shift of analysis and discussions on the strained Kenyan relations with the ICC. Within the realm of International Relations, the study contributes to the continuing debate on state compliance and non – compliance with international legal regimes and treaties. The study recommends that the ICC should pay attention on personality of the leaders it seeks to prosecute, and forecast the impact that their personality traits will have on their cases at the ICC